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2018 College Bowl Odds: Confidence football pool picks, predictions by top-rated computer model

The 2018-19 college football bowl schedule has been released. There are 39 games on tap before the National Championship, starting with the Cure Bowl on December 15 and ending with the Sugar Bowl on New Year’s Day. One of the most anticipated parts of December is the opportunity to compete against family and friends in bowl confidence pools. Just like March Madness brackets, the concept is simple: rank every bowl game from 1 to 39. If you’re highly confident that Penn State will beat Kentucky in the Citrus Bowl, assign it a value of 39. If you’re not sure whether Auburn or Purdue will prevail in the Music City Bowl, assign it a value of one. Whoever gets the most points wins. Before locking in your 2018-19 college football bowl confidence pool picks, check out what the SportsLine Projection Model has to say.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times, and those who have followed it have seen massive returns. Over the past three years, this proprietary computer model has generated a jaw-dropping $4,210 profit for $100 bettors on its top-rated point-spread picks. 

The model enters the 2018 college football bowl season on a blistering 45-25 run on all top-rated picks. It also has an extremely strong track record when it comes to picking bowl games straight up, going 82-40 over the past three seasons — a success rate of almost 70 percent. Anyone who has followed it is way up.

Now this model has revealed its 2018 college football bowl picks and projections for confidence pools, and you can get them only over at SportsLine. 

We can tell you that one of the model’s most confident bowl picks is Penn State over Kentucky in the Citrus Bowl on Jan. 1. In fact, it’s assigning a confidence rating of 37 to that game.

Despite the dream season for the Wildcats, Kentucky has struggled mightily to score points this year. They averaged just over 18 per game in the SEC this season, and that’s simply not going to be enough to get it done against the Nittany Lions at the Citrus Bowl. Kentucky only mustered 14 points against Vanderbilt and was held to just seven by a Tennessee team that’s sitting at home during bowl season.

Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley has the ability to create instant offense from just about anywhere on the field and he’ll be a driving force in a Nittany Lions victory the model is highly confident in. McSorley accounts for 270 yards of total offense and three total touchdowns to help Penn State win in an impressive 78 percent of simulations. Penn State has a point differential of plus-14.6 this season, compared to just 7.8 for Kentucky. Back the Nittany Lions as one of your top bowl confidence picks.

A pick that you should give a lower confidence rating to: Michigan State over Oregon in the Redbox Bowl on Dec. 31. The model is assigning that game a value of 10.

The model rates this Big Ten vs. Pac-12 battle as close to even, giving Michigan State a slight edge against an Oregon squad that was in the hunt for a conference title before double-digit losses to Washington State and Arizona knocked the Ducks out of the conversation. 

The simulations project Michigan’s State defense to hold Oregon star quarterback Justin Herbert under 200 yards through the air. However, the Spartans only win in 56.35 percent of simulations, so be sure to assign a lower confidence rating to that 2018 college football bowl pick.

So who wins every single 2018 college football bowl game, and how confident should you be in every single selection? Visit SportsLine now to see which teams are winning more than 50 percent of simulations and which picks you can lock in with the most confidence, all from the model that has nailed almost 70 percent of its bowl picks straight up over the past three years

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